五年之后

今天是美军入侵伊拉克第六年的开始。CNN 在播一个片子《Shock and Awe -- 5 Years Later》，刚刚播完，Anderson Cooper 说，五年前谁也没想到这一战会打这么久，而五年之后我们又会怎样，谁也无法预料。我反感这种说法。真的没有人预料到五年之后会是今天这种样子吗？事实并非如此，至少 NPR 就报道过几个前 CIA 分析师的预测分析，其准确程度让人吃惊。

翻看我自己的笔记，2004 年 4 月 9 日有这么一段：

“ 猜测一下伊拉克的未来，不难看到最好与最坏的结局。最好的结局，就是伊拉克再出现一个强人，能够镇住暴乱的各方，然后出现的伊拉克国家或许分裂，或许保持统一，或许变成伊斯兰国家，或许真的出现民主——尽管可能性极小。而最坏的结局，恐怕伊拉克斯四分五裂，内战云起，而伊斯兰极端份子乘虚而入，建立基地，制造事端。”

今天看伊拉克的局势，似乎介于我估计的最好与最坏之间，但是偏坏的一端更多。美军在伊拉克的数量尚足够维持大的局面。但是今年总统大选民主党胜出的机会极大，这样明年开始美军从伊拉克开始减防势在必行，如果 Obama 当选，撤军的速度大概会更快一些。这样一来，伊拉克目前的政府能否控制局面，看好的人大概不多。

文明社会向往民主是必然的，然而，民主制度本身是脆弱的，它必须有强大的人文力量和武装力量的支持，否则，民主不见得比强权更能给一般百姓带来好处。从伊拉克的现状看，民主的力量似乎不足以对抗宗族之间的仇杀，甚至少数人的权利欲望。就是美国，当年如果没有军队的保护，九个小石城的黑人学生要上学都没有可能。

Let there be another Saddam

I was thinking of writing that the other day. In today's Parade there is an article about the Iraqi army. The author is discussing if they are ready to defend Iraq when the US troops leave. The author might be too optimistic in asking that question. My question is: Is there anything or anyone that can hold Iraq, and the whole region, back so that they won't explode in the face of the United States?

This US initiated war in Iraq has destroyed so much of the country and so many lives with it, does anyone now expect that the country can ever be a functional state again without some strong man like Saddam? The hope of democracy has faded into a world of chaos. Now all the Bush administration can hope for is to get out of there somehow. I guess Bush's hope of throwing this hot potato to the next president is gone and he has to deal with it (Al Gore is smart not to run in 2008). There is only less than two years left. Hail to the cowboy and good luck!

Some US politicians have been talking about splitting Iraq up into three parts. I guess that might work in weakening that country and keep the Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds fighting each other so that they won't be able to bother the west. However with so much hatred generated in the people by this war, there is a grave danger even that may not hold the explosion down for very long. Having another Saddam might be a good thing, if not the only hope, for Mr. GWB.